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The Ukraine Deadlock

Published:Feb 13, 2022

War is seldom good. People losing lives and facing difficulties should be avoided. But both history and scriptures tell us how even wisdom and the best of negotiation efforts, even by incarnations of God, can often fail. Same it seems to be going on in this present Ukraine crisis.

We cannot know who wants what, but by observing what’s going on and what people are saying and doing we certainly can form an idea. Does Russia want to invade Ukraine? Certainly not. Does Russia want to convey its security concerns? Yes. And how do you make NATO listen unless you raise a security threat to it that says you are damn serious about your concerns? By amassing troops like Russia has done. So is NATO listening? Yes, it is. The developments by Russia has brought NATO to the talking table, but it is not addressing the demands and security concerns of Russia? Unfortunately, no.

NATO as an entity may not bow down or oblige to some high demands of Russia. But it certainly can prevent the possibility of Ukraine invasion easily. How? Just by making sure Ukraine is not allowed to join NATO. They can easily do it despite their open door policy. If Ukraine cannot be a member of NATO, then for what sake Russia will invade Ukraine now if not to cast it self as a bully and aggressor? Just by doing this current tension, war and loss of lives may be prevented. But neither Ukraine nor NATO want it.

Ukraine for the sake of its safety and security from a neighbour as Russia wants to join NATO. NATO welcomes its expansion that provides it tactical and security advantage against Russia. But this kind of development is a security threat for Russia. Can Russia, or for the matter of the fact, any country sit quiet? Certainly not. So we have the current crisis. Where Russia desperately wants its concerns to be heard and addressed, but nothing positive for Russia is happening. On the other hand, NATO members are spreading propaganda that Russia is going to invade Ukraine at any moment. This is like teasing an already agitated person who wants to jump from a bridge and saying him to go ahead and jump from the bridge. The man doesn’t want to jump, if he wanted, he would have already jumped. The fact that he is threatening or shouting means he just want to be heard and understood. But NATO knows that.

The current crisis gives NATO an opportunity to designate Russia as an aggressor and sanction it more making it more weak if Russia goes ahead and invades Ukraine. They are doing it at the expense of people of Ukraine while they can easily avoid the escalation by closing the door for Ukraine to join NATO. Of course this would leave Ukraine to the mercy of Russia which Ukraine doesn’t want. But for making peace certain compromises are required. But who would do the compromise, what compromises one has to do and at what price? So the dead lock.

Let the world leaders in their best wisdom find a way out of this deadlock. But if they fail to do so, then we must understand that we cannot leave our hopes for peace on leaders decided to doom us out. If the situation unfolds into a war, then we have to know that times ain’t good no more. From talks Putin makes the most sense and the best arguments, but if his concerns are not addressed would he back down and lose a face or for the sake of Russia would take the responsibility of a war? Since war too also will not be good for Russia, NATO is teasing it. Let’s see how the deadlock is released.